Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in October 2018.

Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in October 2018.

Market fluctuations in China's mainland stock market in October 2018

October 2018
China's mainland stock market

2018年10月市场波动统计

2018年10月中国大陆股票市场波动统计

2.1.3 全称否定

全称否定指的是两个概念在建立“不是”的逻辑关系时，前项概念的覆盖范围是全部（周延），后项概念的覆盖范围是全部（周延）。

A不是C。

A是周延的，C是周延的。

例如以下的句子：

松树不是阔叶树。
白马是黑马。
张三不是好人。
指标股不是刚上市的股票。

全称否定的语气也具有坚定的态度，只是全称否定的语句对于人们的行动而言，很少留下可供采取行动的指导作用。

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Quote 3 - outcome and process

Financial transactions can't ask what the outcome is. Financial transactions can only ask what the process is.

--ptofft.blogspot.com

2.1.2 I-type of propositions: Particular and affirmative

I-type refers to the two concepts in the establishment of "yes" logical relationship, the coverage of the previous concept is part, the coverage of the latter concept is partial.

e.g.
Some A is C.

A is particular.

For example, the following sentence:

Some pine trees are curved.
Some birds are very large.
Some students are working hard.
Some indicator stocks are blue chip stocks.

The i-type statement is often found in rigorous articles. The writer avoids using the a-type statement, in order to avoid that once any special case occurs, the a-type statement cannot be established.

For example, in the face of the central bank's downward adjustment of deposit reserve, the tone of a-type will express the statement that “the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio will bring sufficient funds to the market and the market will rise.” The tone of i-type will be expressed in a less firm way. "The reduction in the deposit reserve ratio will bring sufficient funds to the market, and the market may rise."

Just the i-type statement requires the reader to think further, and when the reader unconsciously resists independent thinking, then the reader will feel that these words sound "ambiguous" unattractive.

[Thinking] When you are faced with a message or news, you want to think about it again, or you want to see the clear point that the other person gives?

More articles, please see "English version index"

2.1.2 特称肯定

特称肯定指的是两个概念在建立“是”的逻辑关系时，前项概念的覆盖范围是部分（不周延），后项概念的覆盖范围是局部（不周延）。

有些A是C。
A是不周延的，C也是不周延的。

例如以下的句子：

有些松树是弯曲的。
有些鸟是体型很大的。
有些同学是努力的。
有些指标股是蓝筹股。

特称肯定的语句经常见于严谨的文章中，写作者避免使用全称肯定那种强有力的语句，是为了避免一旦有任何一个特例出现，那么全称肯定的语句就无法成立。

例如面对央行向下调整存款准备金一事，全称肯定的语气会表达出“存款准备金率的下调会给市场带来充裕的资金，市场一定会涨起来”这样的语句。而特称肯定则会用不那么坚定的方式来表达“存款准备金率的下调会给市场带来充裕的资金，市场有可能会涨起来”。

只是特称肯定的语句需要读者进一步思考，而当读者不自觉地抵制独立思考时，那么读者会觉得这些话听起来“模棱两可”没有吸引力。

【思考】当你面临一个信息或新闻时，是希望自己再独立思考一次，还是希望直接看到对方给出的明确观点。

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2.1.1 A-type of propositions: Universal and affirmative

 A-type refers to the fact that when the two concepts establish a logical relationship of "yes", the coverage of the previous concept is all , and the coverage of the latter concept is partial .

E.g.

A is C.
A is all, C is not all (partial).

For example, the following sentence:

Pine is a tree.
White horse is a horse.
John is a good person.
Indicator stocks are good stocks.

The A-type statement is the sentence that people like to use most, because this statement can express the firm attitude of the speaker. At the same time, listeners also like to hear such statements, because such statements are "certain" for most people, no need to think. Most people do not intend to accept "uncertain" statements.

For example, when a trader sees an article, its content expresses the recent stock market trend is difficult to grasp, it needs patience to observe for a while to determine; and another article, its content expresses the recent market has confirmed the bottom, can Buy with confidence.

Traders generally prefer the latter's article because this article expresses the concept of "certain"; the former article trader generally thinks that there is no guiding significance, and even himself can draw such a conclusion.

Although the A-type statement sounds like a firm idea and concrete actions that may arise from it, people should clearly understand that the development of anything is complex and changeable. At a certain point in time, facing the development of things with a completely "affirmative" attitude is often hurt, especially in the field of financial investment.

Think about it, many traders often say, “When I buy stocks, the price will fall. When I sell stocks, the price will rise.” Isn’t it just a denial of A-type expression?

More articles, please see "English version index"

2.1.1 全称肯定

全称肯定指的是两个概念在建立“是”的逻辑关系时，前项概念的覆盖范围是全部（周延），后项概念的覆盖范围是局部（不周延）。

A是C。
A是周延的，C不是周延的。

例如以下的句子：

松树是树。
白马是马。
张三是好人。
指标股是好股票。

全称肯定的语句是人们最喜欢使用的句子，因为这种语句说出来可以表达出说话的人坚定的态度。同时听者也喜欢听到这样的语句，因为这样的语句对于大多数人来说是“确定”的，不用去思考。大部分人不原意接受“不确定”的语句。

例如，当交易者看到一篇文章，其内容表达了近期股票市场走势很难把握，需要耐心再观察一段时间才能确定；而另一篇文章，其内容表达了近期市场已经确认了底部，可以放心买入。交易者一般偏向于后者的文章，因为这篇文章表达出“确定”的观念；而前者的文章交易者一般会认为没有任何指导意义，甚至自己也能得出这样的结论。

全称肯定的语句虽然让人听起来有坚定的想法和可能因此而引发的具体行动，但是人们应该明确的了解到，任何事物的发展都是复杂多变的，在某个时间点用完全“肯定”的态度面对，往往受到伤害，尤其是在金融投资领域更为明显。

想想看，很多交易者经常说的“我一买就跌，我一卖就涨”不恰恰是对全称肯定这种表达方式的否定吗？

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2.1 Four forms of judgment

People use a lot of concepts in their daily lives (as well as financial transactions). But if people's everyday language is only concept, then everyone can't be understood. E.g:

A: The sky.
B: Bird.

If there is a bystander who hears the conversation between the two people (A & B ), it will be confused. When people associate concepts and concepts, they let others understand their meaning. E.g:

A: The sky is very blue.
B: The bird is flying.

It is easier for the bystander to understand what the two people are talking about.

In daily life, people often have a large number of judgment sentences in the dialogue, such as "the weather in Antarctica is bad", "the education of this school is outstanding", "he is a kind person" and so on. Judgments in financial transactions are more widely used than in everyday. The financial information or news that traders see every day, the types of judgments are everywhere, and even the titles are full of judgment.

For example: "Liquor stocks will become the white horse stocks in the second half of the year", "the central bank lowers the deposit reserve ratio, which is good for the stock market." "This round of market decline is irrational" and so on.

Traders generally act on the basis of judgment, but before making a judgment, they must have a full understanding of "judgment".

Traditionally, there are four ways to judge:

• Universal and affirmative
• Particular and affirmative
• Universal and negative
• Particular and negative

The following articles will generally describe and explore these.

More articles, please see "English version index"

2.1 判断的四种形式

人们在日常生活中会使用到大量概念（金融交易方面也是如此），但是如果人们的日常语言如果只是有概念，则每个人说出来的话，不能被理解。例如：

甲：天。
乙：鸟。

如果有一个旁观者听到这两人的对话，则会一头雾水。当人们把概念和概念进行联系后，才会让他人理解其含义。例如：

甲：天很蓝。
乙：鸟在飞。

这时旁观者就比较容易理解这两个人的谈论内容。

在日常生活中，人们在对话中，会经常出现大量判断类的语句，例如“南极的天气是恶劣的”，“这个学校的教育是出众的”，“他是心地善良的”等等。而在金融交易方面的判断语句，比日常生活使用的更为广泛。交易者随便打开一个金融类信息或新闻，判断类的语句比比皆是，甚至标题都充满了判断性。

例如：”白酒类股票将成为下半年的白马股“、”央行降低存款准备金率，这对股市是利好的“、”这轮市场的下跌是非理性的“等等语句。

交易者一般都是在判断的基础上做出行动，但是在做出判断之前，先要对“判断”有充分的理解和认识。

传统上，判断有四种方式：

• 全称肯定
• 特称肯定
• 全称否定
• 特称否定

接下来的文章会对这些进行一般性描述和探讨。

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2.0 Setting judgment criteria

There are a lot of concepts in the field of financial investment, such as: stocks, bonds, commodities, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, MACD, KDJ, trading volume, moving averages. After the trader understands a large number of concepts, they need to establish these concepts with each other, which requires setting the criteria.

E.g:

• Stocks with rising averages are good stocks.
• Stocks with a P/E ratio of 20 are good stocks.
• The central bank's reduction in the deposit reserve ratio is good news for the stock market.
• The stocks that hit a record high in history have to be avoided.

And so on the judgment of the above statement, behind it is to associate one concept with the judgment. In order to form an understandable statement, provide traders with guidance on future actions.

More articles, please see "English version index"

2.0 设定判断标准

金融投资领域有大量概念，例如：股票、债券、商品、技术分析、基本面分析、MACD、KDJ、成交量、均线 ... ...。交易者在了解了大量的概念之后，需要将这些概念彼此之间建立起联系，这就需要设定判断标准。

例如：

均线不断上升的股票是好股票。
市盈率为20的股票是好股票。
央行降低存款准备金率对于股票市场是利好的消息。
成交量创出历史新高的股票是要回避的。

等等类似的判断，其背后都是将一个个概念通过设定判断加以联系在一起，以便形成可以理解的语句，为交易者提供将来行动的指引。

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Quote 2 - T. S. Eliot

Where is the Life we have lost in living?
Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge?
Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?

-The Rock ( T. S. Eliot )

1.1.5.6 futures contract

Futures contracts are also known as futures. Its original meaning is that the parties to the transaction sign a contract stipulated that the goods will be delivered at a certain time (for a long time) in the future. So what is the purpose of futures existence? Look at the fictional example below.

Futures contracts are also known as futures. Its original meaning is that the parties to the transaction sign a contract stipulated that the goods will be delivered at a certain time (for a long time) in the future. So what is the purpose of futures existence? Look at the fictional example below.

BXY needs to source raw materials from the iron ore market every month for steel manufacturing. BXY encountered a problem in the procurement process, that is, the price of iron ore is unstable, which makes its production costs fluctuate greatly and poses potential risks to the entire company.

The SOP employs a large number of people every month to mine iron ore. The SOP encountered a problem in the iron ore mining process, that is, the price of iron ore is unstable, so the iron ore mined is sometimes in short supply, sometimes a large backlog, and the number of people mining iron ore is not stable.

The troubles encountered by both sides were resolved after the signing of the long-term contract. Further examples are as follows:

The above picture virtualizes the fluctuation of iron ore prices from January to June 1970. AXY and SOP companies signed a contract on iron ore purchase and sales in June 1970 to avoid the impact of price fluctuations. The contract stipulated that in December 1970, the parties would perform the contract at a fixed price (for example, the price of 1600).

These two companies have avoided the impact of iron ore fluctuations in the market before their respective December.

In such a contract, the parties are generally required to provide a certain amount of margin to ensure that the contract can be fulfilled when it expires.

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1.1.5.6期货合约

期货合约也被称之为期货。其最初的含义就是：交易双方签订一份约定在将来某个时间（远期）交割货物的合约。那么期货存在的目的是什么呢？请看下面虚构的例子。

交易双方：BXY钢铁制造公司（以下简称BXY）；SOP采矿公司（以下简称SOP）.

BXY每月都需要从矿石市场采购原材料用于钢铁制造。BXY在采购过程中遇到一个困扰的问题，那就是矿石价格不稳定，因此使得自己的生产成本波动很大，对整个公司经营形成潜在的风险。

SOP每月都会雇佣大批人员进行矿石的开采。SOP在矿石开采过程中遇到一个困扰的问题，那就是矿石价格不稳定，因此使得开采的矿石有时供不应求，有时会大量积压，同时开采矿石的人员数量不宜稳定。

双方遇到的困扰问题，经过远期合同的签订，得以解决。进一步举例如下：

上图虚拟了1970年1-6月份铁矿石价格的波动，AXY和SOP公司为避免价格波动对各自产生的影响，于是在1970年6月签订了一份关于铁矿石购买和销售的合约，该合约规定在1970年12月份按照固定的价格（例如1600这个价格）双方履行合约。

这样两个公司就避免了铁矿石在市场上的波动对各自在12月份之前的影响。

在这样的合约中，一般会要求双方提供一定金额的保证金，以保证到期时合约能够履行。

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1.1.5.5 ETF

Before we start exploring the ETF, let's first look at the concept of the fund.

The funds we mentioned here only cover the varieties in the financial market, and do not involve fund forms of other organizations in the society (such as charitable funds).

Funds are tools for investors who want to get the return from capital appreciation, but they lack the relevant financial knowledge, so they donate funds to professionals for management in some form. Professionals invest these funds in financial products such as bonds, commercial paper, stocks, commodities or other financial products.

There are three main ways in which funds operate:

• Open: Fund shares change at any time
• Closed: Fund share does not change
• ETF (Exchange Traded Fund): Fund share does not change

Here, we mainly conduct in-depth discussions on ETF. The share of the ETF will not change after the fund is completed, and the holder can trade in the secondary market if he wishes to convert the share into cash. The ETF also introduces a mechanism for the fund to exchange with the physical object. Due to the introduction of the mechanism, the premium or discount between the fund and the physical object is reduced. For example, an ETF tracks an index, and the index is composed of a series of stocks, so holders can also convert their share of funds into a series of stocks and change their own asset holding methods.

This feature of ETF funds is not available to other funds.

[Thinking] When choosing an ETF fund suitable for investment, what factors need to be considered in addition to considering the change of the index corresponding to the fund?

More articles, please see "English version index"

1.1.5.5 ETF基金

在展开ETF基金探讨之前，我们先来关注一下基金这个概念。我们这里提及的基金，只涉及在金融市场的品种，不涉及社会上其他一些组织的基金形式（比如：慈善基金）。

基金（Fund）是为这样一些投资者准备的工具：这些投资者希望获得资本升值带来的回报，但是自身又缺乏相关的金融知识，于是通过某种形式，将资金交给专业人士进行管理。专业人士将这些资金投资于金融产品中，例如债券、商业票据、股票、商品或者其他的金融产品中。

基金的运作方式主要有三种：

• 开放式：基金份额随时发生变化
• 封闭式：基金份额不发生变化
• ETF（交易所交易基金）：基金份额不发生变化

在这里主要针对ETF基金，进行深入探讨。ETF基金的份额在基金完成募集后，不再发生变化，持有者如果希望将份额转换成现金可以在二级市场进行交易。ETF基金同时引入了基金可与实物进行交换的机制，由于该机制的引入，从而使得基金同实物标之间的溢价或折价降低。比如某个ETF基金跟踪一个指数，而指数是由一系列股票组成的，因此持有者也可以把自己持有的基金份额转换成一系列股票，改变自己的资产持有方式。

ETF基金的这个特性，是其他基金不具备的。

【思考】在选择投资适合的ETF基金时，除了根据该基金对应的指数变化状况进行考虑外，还需要考虑哪些因素？

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1.1.5.4 Government bond repo

Before discussing the repo of government bond, let's first understand what bond are.

For the sake of comparison, here is an example of a company to understand the characteristics of bonds. For their own development, enterprises need external funds to support at a certain stage. Enterprises receive external funds mainly through three channels: bank loans, bond issuance, and stock issuance. The table below lists some of the differences between the three methods.

As a way of raising funds, once the bond is successfully issued, the bonds will generally enter the secondary market for public trading.

In actual economic activities, some bondholders need funds for short-term capital turnover, but they are not willing to give up the rights of bond holding. At this time, they can use the “repo” transaction to complete the short-term turnover of funds.

Repo is also known as a reverse repurchase  agreement. As can be seen from the name, this trading behavior is characterized by the fact that when the financial product is sold, an agreement is agreed to buy back the financial product at a certain time. The figure below is a clear description.

When the financial product of the transaction is a government bond, it is called a reverse repo of the government bond. Since the government bond has a high credit, the reverse repurchase of the financial transaction market is often based on the reverse repurchase of government bond.

[Thinking] Does the form of investment in the reverse repurchase of government bond appear in your trading system?

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1.1.5.4 国债逆回购

在讨论国债逆回购之前，我们先来了解一下什么是债券。

为便于比较，这里以企业作为例子，来了解债券的特点。企业为了自身的发展，在某个阶段需要外部资金给予支持。企业获得外部资金，主要通过三种途径：银行贷款、发行债券、发行股票。这三种方式的一些区别请看下表。

债券作为一种募集资金的方式，一旦发行成功，接下来债券一般也进入二级市场进行公开交易。

在实际的经济活动中，有些债券持有人因短期资金周转需要资金，但是又不愿意放弃债券持有的权利，此时可借助“逆回购”这种交易行为完成资金短期周转的需求。

逆回购也被称为附买回协议。从名称上可以看出，这种交易行为的特点是：在卖出金融产品的同时会附带约定好在某个时间买回此金融产品的协议。我们以下图作为清晰的说明。

当交易的金融产品是国债的时候，就被成为国债逆回购。由于国债具有很高的信用，因此金融交易市场的逆回购常常以国债逆回购为主。

【思考】国债逆回购这种投资形式，是否会出现你的交易系统中呢？

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1.1.5.3 Primary market and secondary market

The process of raising funds by government, public institutions or companies through the issuance of bonds or stocks is called the primary market. The primary market provides a direct source of funding for social and business development. For stocks, this is also known as the IPO (Initial public offering).

The secondary market is aimed at the trading process of financial products issued after the completion of fundraising in the primary market, with the aim of providing sufficient liquidity for the entire market. For stocks, such as the stock exchanges and platforms provided by the New York Stock Exchange, the stock exchanges and platforms provided by the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

It should be noted here that the trading behavior of the secondary market does not have a direct impact on the government, public institutions or company operations that have completed the fundraising in the primary market.

Especially for the stock market, many traders are prone to the illusion that when prices fall, it seems that their corresponding entities are also on the verge of falling or even collapsing. We use an example to illustrate.

From the figure, we can more clearly realize that even if the stock price falls to near zero, it will not affect the fact that the funds raised by the company were used for enterprise development (unless the funds raised are illegal).

[Thinking] When the stock market is in a bear market or a bull market, is the trader's understanding of the company too much influenced by the market price?


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1.1.5.3 一级市场和二级市场

政府、公共机构或者公司通过发行债券或者股票等方式募集资金的过程，被称之为一级市场。一级市场为社会和企业的发展提供了直接的资金来源。对于股票而言，这也被称之为IPO（Initial public offering）。

二级市场针对的是在一级市场完成募集资金后发布的金融产品的交易过程，其目的是为整个市场提供了充分的流动性。对于股票而言，比如纽约证券交易所提供的股票交易场所和平台、上海证券交易所提供的股票交易场所和平台。

这里需要注意一点，二级市场的交易行为对于在一级市场已经完成募集资金的政府、公共机构或者公司运营而言，并不产生直接的影响。

尤其是对于股票市场，很多交易者容易形成一个错觉，那就是当价格不断下跌时，好像其对应的实体也处于不断下滑甚至崩溃的边缘。我们用一个例子加以说明。

从图中我们可以较为清楚的认识到，即使股价跌至趋近于0，也会不影响当初企业募集到的资金，用于企业发展这一事实（除非募集资金有违法行为）。

【思考】当股票市场处于熊市或牛市的时候，交易者对企业的理解是不是过多的被市场价格所左右了？

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1.1.5.2 Changes in sample stocks and stock index distortion

In the previous articles, traders learned that the stock index contains two factors, one is the sample stocks and the other is the calculation method. Over time, the stock index will inevitably encounter a thorny problem: the listed companies corresponding to certain sample stocks stop trading or withdraw from the market for various reasons, which puts a test on the continuity of the index. Here is an example of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average began on May 26, 1896 and has been in operation until now. But its initial sample stocks no longer exist in today's index. This means that if the original sample stock has been used, the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average should now be the number 0 or not. This is not the case. The chart below shows the historical changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Index:

What is the reason for the index to go up?

Index compilers have adopted a strategy of regularly changing sample stocks to keep the index alive for a long time. The table below shows the changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Index sample stocks.

Each time a new sample stock is added, it must mean that an old sample stock has been eliminated. Through such principles and strategies, the index can exist for a long time, and as the economy continues to develop, the index value can continue to rise.

Here, traders need to be alert to this. Although the name of the index has not changed, its substance may be completely different.

[Thinking] What are the differences in the impact of indexing strategies on long-term investment behavior and short-term investment behavior?

More articles, please see "English version index"

1.1.5.2 股票指数样本股的变化与失真

在前面的文章中，交易者了解到股票指数包含了两个因素，一个是样本股，另一个是计算方法。随着时间的推移，股票指数不可避免的会碰到一个棘手的问题：某些样本股对应的上市公司由于各种原因停止交易或者退出市场，这对指数存在的连续性提出了考验。这里以道琼斯工业平均指数（DJIA）为例，进行详细说明。

道琼斯工业平均指数于1896年5月26日开始公布，一直运行到现在。但是其最初的样本股在今日的指数中都已经不存在了。这意味着如果一直采用最初的样本股，那么到现在，道琼斯工业平均指数的数值应该是数字0或者不存在。事实却不是这样。下图显示了道琼斯工业指数的历史变化：

是什么原因使得指数一直上行呢？

指数编制机构采用了定期更换样本股的策略，以保持指数能够长久存在。下表列出了道琼斯工业指数样本股的变化过程。

每次新样本股的选入，必定意味着有一个旧的样本股被淘汰。通过这样的原则和策略，使得指数能够长期存在，并且随着经济的发展不断使得指数数值可以一直上升。

在这里，交易者要对此有所警觉，虽然指数名称没有变化，但是其实质内容可能已经完全不同了。

【思考】指数样本股的变化对于长期投资行为和短期投资行为的影响有哪些不同？

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1.1.5.1 Stock Index

A stock index is a data obtained by collecting a series of stock data according to a certain classification standard and calculating the series of stocks according to a certain calculation method.

The above expressions of the concept of index involve two aspects: classification standard and calculation method.

The classification criteria can be used in the current habits and can be divided into two types: broad and narrow:

• A broad classification generally refers to the collection of stocks of all transactions on a stock exchange. This can be used to reflect the status of the entire trading market, thereby reflecting the overall economic performance of the country or region.
• In the narrow sense, the stocks are collected according to certain daily standards (such as finance, energy, agriculture, etc.), which can be used to reflect the status of an industry, which can reflect the economic operation of an industry.

There are usually two ways to calculate:

• Arithmetic Mean: Averages the sample data by arithmetic averaging.
• Weighted average: averages based on the weight of the sample data.

[Thinking] When an investor observes an index, is it conscious to understand the scope and calculation method of its sample data? Do you understand the impact of this information on the choice of investment products?

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1.1.5.1 指数

指数是指根据某种分类标准采集与之相关的一系列股票，根据某种计算方法对这一系列股票进行计算得出的数据。

上述对指数概念的表达中涉及到两个方面：分类标准和计算方法。

分类标准可以目前使用的习惯，可以分为广义和狭义两种：

• 广义的分类，一般指的是采集某个证券交易所所有交易的股票，这可以用来反映整个交易市场的状况，由此可以反映该国家或地区整个经济的运行状况。
• 狭义的分类，则是根据某种日常标准（比如金融类、能源类、农业类等）采集交易的股票，这可以用来反映某个行业的状况，由此可以反映某个行业在经济运行中的状况。

计算方法通常也有两种方式：

• 算术平均：对样本数据通过算数平均的方法求平均值
• 加权平均：根据样本数据权重的不同求平均值

【思考】当投资者观察某个指数时，是否有意识去了解过其样本涵盖的范围以及计算方法？了解这些信息，对于选择投资品种是否会产生影响？

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Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in September 2018.

Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in September 2018.

Quote 1 - - Erich Fromm

What are the necessary steps in learning any art? The process of learning an art can be divided conveniently into two parts:

• one, the mastery of the theory; 
• the other, the mastery of the practice. 

... ...

But, aside from learning the theory and practice, there is a third factor necessary to becoming a master in any art — the mastery of the art must be a matter of ultimate concern; there must be nothing else in the world more important than the art.

-The Art of Loving (1956)   Erich Fromm