Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in December 2018.

Comparison of strengths and weaknesses of stocks in China mainland in December 2018.

Market fluctuations in China's mainland stock market in December2018

December 2018
Market fluctuations in China's mainland stock market

2018年12月市场波动统计市场

2018年12月中国大陆股票市场主要指数变化对比图

2018年12月中国大陆股票市场强弱板块对比变化图

3.6.2 Suggestions on establishing a trading strategy (2)

End with a "relatively good" strategy

After the trader removes the "not good strategy", there will be some good strategies left behind with the culling strategy. Traders need to make trade-offs to settle their relatively good strategies to meet their investment requirements. However, many traders are not satisfied with this and hope to find a better or even "perfect" trading strategy.

But as discussed at the beginning of this chapter (see 3.1.1), no single strategy is flawless, because a flawless strategy can make assets expand and produce amazing results. This phenomenon has not been seen in the real trading environment.

A strategy of pursuing perfection can cause damage to traders. This sentence sounds a bit unreasonable, but it is true because:

• When a trader develops a so-called "perfect" strategy, the strategy is revisited in the event of an undesirable effect in the process of testing with historical data of selectable multiple samples. Once the strategy is revised, it needs to be re-verified. Repeating this way may result in a huge amount of work and consume a lot of time and effort of the trader.
• Once a "perfect" strategy has been put into practice through the test of multiple sample historical data, and the subsequent reality is very likely to make the strategy invalid at some point in time, the trader needs to be revised. Strategy and test to meet the "perfect" needs. This may once again create a massive amount of work, continuing to consume a lot of time and effort on the trader.

Therefore, once a trader has worked hard to develop a "perfect" strategy, this means that the trader always reminds himself that he may spend the same hard time modifying the strategy at any time in the future.

If a trader changes the demanding requirements of the “strategy” and can accept the “strategy” to some extent, then the tested strategy will not let the trader be in a state of tension to modify the strategy.

This is what this article calls a "relatively good" strategy.

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3.6.2 关于建立交易策略的建议（2）

止于“相对好”的策略

交易者在对“不好的策略”进行剔除后，会剩余一些相对于剔除的策略而留下的好的策略。交易者对于留下的相对好的策略，需要有所取舍，以满足自己的投资要求。不过很多交易者不满足于此，希望找到更好的甚至是“完美”的交易策略。

不过正如本章开始所探讨的那样（详见3.1.1），没有哪一个策略是完美无瑕的，因为完美无瑕的策略会让资产扩张起来产生惊人的效果，而在现实的交易环境中没有普遍的看到这样的现象。

追求完美的策略会造成对交易者的伤害。这句话听起来有些不合情理，不过事实的确如此，原因在于：

• 当交易者制定了所谓的“完美”的策略后，在利用可选择的多个样本的历史数据进行检验的过程中，一旦出现不理想的效果，就会重新修订该策略。而一旦重新修订策略，那么需要重新检验此策略。这样反复下去，可能会形成海量工作，并消耗交易者大量的时间和精力。
• 一旦某个“完美”策略通过了多个样本历史数据的检验开始付诸于实际操作，而接下来发生的现实情况极有可能让该策略在某个时间点失效，此时交易者需要重新修订策略，并检验以符合“完美”的需要。这可能又一次形成海量工作，继续消耗交易者大量的时间和精力。

因此，一旦交易者通过艰辛的努力研究出某个“完美”的策略，那么这就意味着交易者时刻都要提醒自己随时可能在将来再耗费同样的艰辛修改此策略。

交易者如果改变对“策略”的苛刻要求，能够接受“策略”在某种程度上带来的损失，那么经过检验后的策略不会让交易者时刻处于要修改策略的紧张状态中。

这就是本文所谓的止于“相对好”的策略。

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3.6.1 Suggestions on establishing a trading strategy (1)

Every trader wants to establish their own personalized trading strategy, so the established trading strategy will vary from person to person, and the difference between these trading strategies is bigger or smaller. For example, two traders are based on MACD to establish their own trading strategy. If the parameters adopted by the two people are different, then the difference is very small; if one trader adopts the trading strategy of MACD technology analysis and another trade Using the fundamentals of financial indicators to analyze trading strategies, the difference between the two trading strategies is large.

Therefore, this article can not give a detailed discussion on the specific content of the trading strategy, and can only discuss the starting point and purpose of the entire trading strategy.

Thinking from a "not good strategy"

The so-called "not good strategy" means that when a trader chooses a specific strategy, the strategy is not suitable for the trader.

“Good” and “not good” are relative concepts. Different traders, investment ideas and investment plans will make the same strategy produce different value judgments between different traders.

When traders develop their own trading strategies, they generally prefer to start thinking from the perspective of “good strategy”, and when considering this purpose, they unconsciously hope that this “good strategy” can “completely” avoid various kinds. risk. Thinking for this purpose is risky for most traders. At the beginning of this chapter, we explored that this strategy is not universal, but most traders will believe that they have the ability to master a "good strategy" that others cannot master. This has caused many traders to fall into this category--the "good strategy" of "completely" avoiding risks is in pursuit.

Once a trader is caught in a “good strategy” pursuit of “completely” avoiding risk, it will cause some harm to the trader:

• When the strategy is effective at a certain stage, the trader will downplay the risk control, which makes the trader forget the discipline in the use of funds;
• When the strategy fails at a certain stage, the trader will be confused, which makes the funds slowly lose the security barrier;
• When the strategy fails for a long time, the trader will fall into pain, which makes the rational analysis and independent thinking disappear;
• When the strategy fails for a longer period of time, the trader pays more time for this.

If the trader changes the starting point of the trading strategy and starts to study from the "not good strategy", this stage can not get the active guidance of the action, but it can produce another effect: let yourself realize that in many cases You should not behave arrogantly.

From the negative way as a starting point for thinking, traders can effectively isolate themselves from “not good” strategies. For example, when a trader prepares a portion of the funds to trade in financial products, he has begun to give the business a "long-lasting good" vision in the depths of the trader's consciousness. But once the funds are ready for the transaction, some "strategies" are inadvertently pushed to the traders - for example, "the average price on the 10th goes from falling to buying, and the average price on the 10th is changed from rising to falling." Such a strategy. Once the trader begins to feel that the strategy is effective, then the investable variety will come one after another. As traders continue to buy, they suddenly find that their funds are not enough, and they are quickly occupied by a large number of trading products, and then continue to emerge. The exhaustion of funds in a short period of time contrasts with the vision of “long-term beauty”. On the one hand, traders will give unrealistic wishes to the currently traded varieties, and on the other hand, short-term quick actions will disrupt long-term planning.

When traders start with long-term planning, once they encounter short-term strategies, it is probably a good strategy to consider this strategy first, but for their long-term plans, this is a "not good strategy" and should be avoided. use.

This way of thinking about the starting point can be a good protection for traders.

For example, the following ways of thinking:

• Don't buy stocks that have a record high (although it's tempting and may even be more attractive in the future).
• Don't buy stocks that have a record low (although it's cheap, maybe it's cheaper in the future).
• Don't buy stocks that are losing money (although the market reports that it will turn losses, but it is not true after all).
• Don't buy stocks that haven't paid dividends for many years (although it's good, but it's not for shareholders).
• The price breaks through the xx day pressure line and does not buy (although the price has broken through, the long-term investment behavior is not based on the price breakthrough on a certain day)
• ...

This way of thinking will make traders feel that certain conditions constrain their own transactions, but it is these constraints that effectively protect traders in many cases.

(to be continued...)

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3.6.1 关于建立交易策略的建议（1）

每一个交易者都希望建立自己的交易策略，因此使得建立的交易策略会因人而异，这些交易策略之间的差别或大或小。例如两个交易者都是基于MACD建立起自己的交易策略，如果二人采取的参数有所差异，那么这种区别就十分微小；而如果一个交易者采用MACD技术分析的交易策略而另一个交易者采用财务指标的基本面分析交易策略，那么这两种交易策略之间的差异就很大了。

因此本文对交易策略的具体内容无法给予详细的论述，只能就整个交易策略建立的出发点和目的做一些探讨。

从“不好的策略”开始思考

所谓“不好的策略”是指当一位交易者对某个具体策略进行选择时，该策略不适合这位交易者。

“好”与“不好”是相对的概念，因交易者不同、投资理念和投资计划不同会使得同一个策略在不同的交易者之间产生相异的价值判断。

交易者在制定自己的交易策略时，一般偏向于从“好的策略”这样的角度开始思考，并且在考虑这个目的时，不自觉地希望这个“好的策略”可以“完全”避开各种风险。抱着这样的目的进行思考对于大多数交易者而言是有风险的。本章一开始就探讨了这种策略不具备普遍性，可是大多数交易者在内心深处会相信自己有能力掌握一种他人无法掌握的“好的策略”，这使得很多交易者陷入对这种“完全”避开风险的“好的策略”追求中。

一旦交易者陷入对“完全”避开风险的“好的策略”追求，会给交易者带来某些方面的伤害：

• 策略在某个阶段有效时，交易者会淡化风险控制，这使得交易者在资金的使用上忘记了纪律；
• 策略在某个阶段失效时，交易者会陷入迷茫，这使得资金慢慢失去安全的屏障；
• 当策略长时间失效时，交易者会陷入痛苦，这使得理智分析和独立思考消失；
• 当策略更长时间失效时，交易者为此付出了更多时间的代价。

如果交易者改变制定交易策略的出发点，转而从“不好的策略”开始研究，这个阶段虽然无法获得行动上的主动指引，但是却可以产生另一个效果：让自己意识到在很多种情况下不应该莽撞行事。

从否定方式作为思考的出发点，交易者可以有效的同“不好”的策略进行隔绝。例如当交易者准备了一部分资金希望从事金融产品的交易时，在交易者意识的深处已经开始对这项事业给予了一个“长久美好”的愿景。但资金一旦为交易做好准备，某些“策略”不经意间就推送到交易者面前——例如“10日平均价格从下跌转入上升买入，10日平均价格由上升转入下跌卖出”这样的策略。一旦交易者开始觉得该策略有效，那么可投资品种接踵而至的到来，目不暇接。随着交易者不断买入，突然发现自己的资金不够用了，很快被大量交易品种占据，而接下来还在不断涌现。短时间资金的耗尽同“长久美好”的愿景形成反差。一方面交易者会给予当前所交易品种不切实际的愿望，另一方面短期快速行为打乱了长久的计划安排。

当交易者一开始有长远规划时，一旦遇到短期策略，首先要考虑这种策略可能是一个好的策略，但是对于自身的长远计划来说，这是一个“不好的策略”，应该避免使用。

这样思考出发点对交易者可以起到很好的保护作用。

例如以下的思考方式：

• 创出历史新高的股票不要买入（虽然它很诱人，甚至可能将来更诱人）。
• 创出历史新低的股票不要买入（虽然它很便宜，也许将来会更便宜）。
• 企业亏损的股票不要买入（虽然市场报道它会扭亏，但毕竟还不是事实）。
• 企业多年也不分红的股票不要买入（虽然它业绩还不错，但是它不为股东着想）。
• 价格突破xx日压力线不要买入（虽然价格有所突破，但长期投资的行为不是建立在某一天价格突破的基础上）
• … …

以上这种思考方式，会让交易者觉得某些条件对自己的交易产生了约束，但是正是这些约束在很多情况下会有效地保护了交易者。

（待续）

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