3.3.1 Inspection strategy（1）

Many traders seldom go through detailed historical tests after developing strategies.Although the facts of history cannot verify the accuracy of the strategy in the future, after a strategy is formulated, if it cannot be tested in the fact that history has already occurred, then the starting point of this strategy is likely to have major problems.

For traders who have a good trading strategy, their trading strategies are either biased towards using fundamental analysis or biased towards technical analysis. Traders who can integrate the two in a complete strategy need a comprehensive knowledge structure, logical reasoning and patient testing, so such traders are relatively few.

The strategies brought about by fundamental analysis and technical analysis will give traders different difficulties in testing historical data.

• Strategy biased towards fundamental analysis

When a trader develops a strategy that favors fundamental analysis, traders need to use a large number of samples to test historical data. This is a cumbersome process that makes most traders unwilling or unsure of how to proceed.

When traders use historical data to test their trading strategies based on fundamental analysis, the first problem that needs to be addressed is how to easily find qualified samples from historical data. The following is an example.

Here we assume that the trader's strategy is that stocks with a P/E ratio between 15 and 25 are worth investing in.

To be continued.

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3.3.1 策略的检验方法（1）

很多交易者在制定策略后，很少去进行详尽的历史检验。虽然历史发生的事实无法验证策略在将来使用的准确性，但一个策略制定后，如果在历史已经发生的事实中都无法检验，那么这个策略的出发点极有可能也存在着重大问题。

对于制定好交易策略的交易者来说，其交易策略要么偏向于使用基本面分析，要么偏向于技术分析，能够将二者统合在一套完整策略里的交易者需要全方位的知识结构、严密的逻辑推理和耐心的检验，因此这样的交易者比较少数。

基本面分析和技术分析带来的策略，会给交易者在通过历史数据检验上带来不同的难度。

偏向于基本面分析的策略

当交易者制订了偏向于基本面分析的策略后，交易者需要使用大量样本进行历史数据的检验，这是一个繁琐的过程，使得大多数交易者不愿意或者不知该如何着手检验。

当交易者用历史数据去检验自己基于基本面分析的交易策略时，第一个需要着手解决的问题就是，如何方便的把符合条件的样本从历史的数据中找出来。下面举例说明。

这里我们假设交易者的策略是：市盈率介于15至25之间的股票是值得投资的股票。

（待续）

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3.2 Inappropriate goals - perfect trading strategy (2)

Next, compare the market volatility with the asset volatility as the following figure to further observe the effect of the strategy.

From the above graphical comparison we see the following result: the trader's assets have risen sharply. As far as the fluctuation of assets is compared with the index, there is almost no fluctuation in the index.

When traders successfully develop a “sustainable profitability” trading strategy, the changes in their assets are staggering. Its assets have grown more than 220 times in 18 years or so, which is an extremely tempting result. But in fact, traders have not seen this phenomenon happening frequently, which explains from another angle that such a strategy is not universal even if it exists.

What traders must reflect is whether it is appropriate to aim for a “sustainable profitability” strategy that is not universal.

As for the purpose of the strategy, each trader will give a different answer. Here we only point out that "sustainable profitability" is the purpose, the possibility of realization is very small, there is no universality.

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3.2不恰当的目标——完美的交易策略（2）

接下来将市场波动同资产波动进行对比描绘成下图，以便进一步观察该策略的效果。

从上面的图形波动对比中我们看到如下的结果：交易者的资产大幅度攀升，以至于资产波动幅度同指数对比中，几乎看不出指数的的波动情况。

当交易者成功研究出一个“可以持续盈利”的交易策略时，其资产的变化是惊人的。其资产在18年左右的时间增长超过了220倍，这是一个极其诱人的成果。但在事实当中，交易者们没有看到周围有这种现象经常发生，这从另一个角度说明了这样的策略即使有也不是普遍存在的。

我们不禁必须反思把“可以持续盈利”这种事实上很难存在的策略作为交易者制定策略的目的，是否恰当？

至于该把什么样的目的作为制定策略的目的，每个交易者都会给出不同的答案，在这里我们只是指出当把“可以持续盈利”作为目的时，实现的可能性很小，没有普遍性。

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3.1 Inappropriate goals - perfect trading strategy (1)

Traders need to consider what the final trading strategy they want to achieve before establishing their own trading system. This is an obvious but little thought for the trader.

For example, when you ask a trader what his trading strategy hopes to achieve, the content of the answer is often similar to the words “make my own assets add value”

This sentence is very exciting, but it is also very worrying. This is because such a statement has deviated from the actual situation and turned into a sentence similar to ideal. Below we make a brief description based on the actual data of the market, combined with the virtual example.

Time: The end of 1999.
Trader: A
Research results: Successfully develop and establish a trading strategy – the result is a constant increase in assets.

According to the research results of Trader A, the strategy developed will guide the trader's specific trading behavior and increase the value of A's assets. If the strategy causes a large loss in the asset (a small range of losses, we temporarily believe that the strategy is still valid) then it does not meet the purpose of the strategy, and will not become the research results of Trader A.

In early 2000, Trader A began using this "successful" strategy. Because the strategy is successful, when the securities market is in the process of decline, Trader A's funds will not have a large loss, and in the process of market rise, Trader A's funds should rise.

What effect will it have since the implementation of the strategy in 2000 until 2018? The chart below shows the fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index(China)  during this period:

Through data collation, we organize the larger range of cycles that the strategy can use as follows:

The income generated by the investment during this period is organized as follows:

	Investment start and end time	Percentage of revenue	Simulated funding changes
0	1999-End of year- Strategic research success		10,000.00
1	2000/1/Mid-term——2001/6/Mid-term	≈ 57%	15,700.00
2	2002/1/Late——2002/7/Early	≈ 24%	19,468.00
3	2003/1/Early——2003/6/Mid-term	≈ 16%	22,583.00
4	2003/11/Late——2004/4/Early	≈ 33%	30,035.00
5	2005/7/Late——2005/9/Late	≈ 19%	35,742.00
6	2005/12/Early——2007/10/Mid-term	≈ 470%	203,729.00
7	2009/1/Early——2009/8/Early	≈ 83%	372,824.00
8	2010/7/Late——2010/11/Early	≈ 24%	462,302.00
9	2012/12/Early——2013/2/Mid-term	≈ 20%	554,762.00
10	2014/7/Mid-term——2015/6/Mid-term	≈ 153%	1,403,548.00
11	2015/10/Early——2015/12/Late	≈ 18%	1,656,187.00
12	2016/6/Late——2017/4/Mid-term	≈ 13%	1,871,491.00

As can be seen from the above table, such a strategy has amazing effects. But is it actually the case?

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3.1不恰当的目标——完美的交易策略（1）

交易者在建立自己的交易系统之前，需要考虑最后希望建立的交易策略达到什么样的目的。这对于交易者而言是一个显而易见却很少深入思考的内容。

例如：当你询问一个交易者他的交易策略希望达到的目标时，往往回答的内容都是类似于“让自己的资产增值”这样的话语展开。

这句话很让人心动，却也很让人担忧，这是因为这样的语句已经脱离了实际情况，变成了一句类似于理想的话语。下面我们根据市场的真实数据，并结合虚拟的例子做一个简要说明。

时间：1999年底。
交易者：甲
研究成果：成功开发并建立一套交易策略A——目的是让自己的资产增值

根据交易者甲的研究成果，制定的策略会指导交易者具体的交易行为，并让甲的资产增值。如果该策略使得资产发生较大亏损（较小范围的亏损，我们暂且认为策略依然有效）那么就不符合策略的目的也就不会成为交易者甲的研究成果了。

在2000年初交易者甲开始使用这个“成功”的策略，由于其策略是成功的，因此当证券市场处于下跌过程中，交易者甲的资金不会出现较大亏损，同时在市场上涨的过程中，交易者甲的资金都应该出现上涨。

从2000年开始实施策略直到2018年会产生什么样的效果呢？下图是上证指数这段时期的波动：

通过数据整理，我们将策略可使用的较大范围的周期整理如下：

将此期间的投资产生的收益情况整理如下表：

序号	投资起始时间	收益	模拟资金变化
0	1999年底策略研究成功		10,000.00
1	2000年1月中旬——2001年6月中旬	≈ 57%	15,700.00
2	2002年1月下旬——2002年7月上旬	≈ 24%	19,468.00
3	2003年1月上旬——2003年6月中旬	≈ 16%	22,583.00
4	2003年11月下旬——2004年4月上旬	≈ 33%	30,035.00
5	2005年7月下旬——2005年9月下旬	≈ 19%	35,742.00
6	2005年12月上旬——2007年10月中旬	≈ 470%	203,729.00
7	2009年1月上旬——2009年8月上旬	≈ 83%	372,824.00
8	2010年7月下旬——2010年11月上旬	≈ 24%	462,302.00
9	2012年12月上旬——2013年2月中旬	≈ 20%	554,762.00
10	2014年7月中旬——2015年6月中旬	≈ 153%	1,403,548.00
11	2015年10月上旬——2015年12月下旬	≈ 18%	1,656,187.00
12	2016年6月下旬——2017年4月中旬	≈ 13%	1,871,491.00
13	2017年6月上旬——2018年1月下旬	≈ 19%	2,227,074.00

由上表可以看出，这样的策略具有惊人的效果。但事实上会是这样吗？

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3.0 How to invest in financial products?

The question of how to invest in financial products varies from person to person in thousands of ways. But regardless of its content, it tries to achieve results similar to the following:

Traders often refer to the method of how they invest in “strategy”. The research and establishment of strategies has become the main content of how to invest in financial products.

Investment strategies often contain something like the following:

Each small strategy contains: several concepts, logical judgments between concepts and concepts. The accurate understanding of concepts and the proper application of logical judgments form the basis of an effective strategy.

For clarification concepts and logical judgments, this series of blogs has been briefly described and discussed, and the following content will be developed for strategy.

[Thinking] Can traders clearly describe their investment strategies? Is the description of the statement logically expressed?

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3.0 如何投资金融产品？

如何投资金融产品这样的问题，因人而异会有千百种方式解读和回答。但无论其内容如何，都试图达到类似于如下的结果：

交易者经常把自己如何进行投资的方法称之为“策略”，对于策略的研究和建立，成为了如何投资金融产品的主要内容。

投资策略中经常包含类似如下的内容：

每一个小的策略中包含了：若干个概念、概念与概念之间的逻辑判断。对概念的准确理解和逻辑判断的恰当应用成为一个有效策略的基础。

对于概念和逻辑判断，本系列博客已经做了简要描述和探讨，接下来的内容将针对策略展开。

【思考】交易者能否将自己的投资策略清晰地描述出来？描述出来的语句是否符合逻辑表达？

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2.1.8 Preliminary discussion on "Syllogism" (2)

One of the common problems that traders may encounter in common: when reading research reports, news, and information, traders think that "Major premise" is correct, and therefore accept the conclusion and take action based on the conclusion. This may involve trading risks but not aware of them.

The following is the analysis information given on the virtual "Lido Machinery Company". We use this as an example to make a general discussion of people's thinking habits.

Recently, the stock of Lido Machinery Co., Ltd. (the virtual company of this article) continued to rise, and the driving force for the rise in stock prices came from the good fundamentals of the three quarterly reports.

When a trader sees similar text, the trader can easily translate the sentence into a "good fundamentals" stock that will cause the stock price to "continue to rise." Now we turn this sentence into a more explicit A proposition expression below, and use the syllogism to simulate possible thinking processes.

The trader will unconsciously perform some conversions in the above sentence.

Lido Machinery's good fundamentals of three quarterly  are the driving force for the  rise in Lido Machinery's stock prices.

Then this sentence will be transformed into another unconscious conversion (without the word "Lido Machinery"):

Good fundamentals of three quarterly  are the driving force for the  rise in stock prices.  (Major premise)

Next, expand the inference below.

The fundamentals of three quarterly of Fuyun Ore (this company's virtual company) are good. (Minor premise)


The fundamentals of three quarterly of Fuyun Ore are good for the rise in Fuyun Ore stock prices. (Conclusion)

According to this conclusion, traders may buy shares in Fuyun Ore Company.

In fact, at this time, the trader should review the article's discussion of the A proposition. At this time, it is clear that the "The fundamentals of three quarterly are good " is only one of the full powers of the stock price increase.

With this understanding, when traders face the trade of Fuyun Ore stocks, they will not only decide their own behavior from the condition that the fundamentals are good in the third quarter.

However, even with such an obvious way of thinking, many traders will give up. The reason is that the next step in finding other reasons for stocks to rise will cause traders to fall into the search for “uncertain” information. Most traders prefer to accept isolated "certain" information.

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2.1.8 对“三段论”的初步探讨（二）

交易者平常可能碰到的常见问题之一：在阅读研究报告、新闻、信息时，默认其大前提是正确的，因此也就接受了其结论，根据其结论采取了行动。这其中就可能蕴含了交易风险而自己却并未察觉。

以下是就虚拟利多机械公司，某日给出的分析信息。我们以此为例对人们的思维习惯做一般性探讨。

近期利多机械公司（本文虚拟的公司）股票持续上升，三季报基本面良好构成股票了上涨动力。

当交易者看到类似的文字时，容易潜移默化的将此句转化成“业绩良好”的股票会让股票价格“持续上升”。现在我们把这句话转化成下面较为明确的A命题表达方式，并使用三段论进行模拟可能的思维过程。

交易者会把上面一句话不自觉地进行某些转换。

利多机械三季报基本面良好 是 近期利多机械公司股票持续上涨的动力。

然后此句话会经过另一无意识的转换（抽掉利多机械一词）变成：

三季报基本面良好 是 近期股票持续上涨的动力。

接下来就展开下面的推论。
富蕴矿石（本文虚拟的公司）三季报基本面 是 好的。
富蕴矿石三季报基本面良好 是 富蕴矿石股票上涨的动力。

按照这样的推论，交易者可能会买入富蕴矿石公司的股票。

实际上此时交易者应该回顾文章对A命题的探讨，此时就可以明确的知道“三季报基本面良好”只是全部动力中的一个罢了，有了这样的认识，当面对另一个可供选择的股票富蕴矿石是否该交易时，就不会单单只从三季报基本面良好这一个条件来决定自己的行为了。

不过，即使这样一个显而易见的思考方式，很多交易者也会放弃，其原因在于接下来找其他让股票上涨原因的工作会让交易者觉得陷入对“不确定”信息的寻找中，而大部分交易者偏向于喜欢接受孤立的“确定”的信息。

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Quote5- Learning and thinking

Just learning not thinking one person will be confusing; just thinking not learning one person will be in trouble.

-- Analects

2.1.7 Preliminary discussion on "Syllogism" (1)

Syllogism is a commonly used inference method in people's daily life. This inference method involves the following three parts.

• Major premise
• Minor premise
• Conclusion

The discussion of syllogism can go deep into complex graphical methods, but here we only do some general discussion. If traders are interested in the in-depth content of syllogism, they can study the relevant knowledge of logic.

In order to understand some of the ways in which syllogism is used everyday, we present a simple example here.

• Major premise: Cattle is herbivore.
• Minor premise:The water buffalo is the cattle.
• Conclusion:The water buffalo is herbivore.

In daily life, people often use similar inference methods to judge things.

Traders often think in a similar way also, for example (the following is an example of a virtual “Lido Machinery” company stock):

• Stocks with low P/E ratios are stocks with low risk.
• Lido Machinery is a stock with a low P/E ratio.
• Lido Machinery is a stock with low risk.

This kind of inference seems reasonable, but in practical applications, many traders feel that they always make frequent mistakes. why?

Readers delve into the above two examples, and they will find a very interesting but serious problem, that is, the "major premise" as a proposition indicates a certain situation, but whether this situation is realistic or not, people generally do not go think deeply.

This is what was mentioned in the previous discussion of the proposition: the proposition is only responsible for whether the sentence itself conforms to a certain rule. Whether this proposition is realistic or not, it is not required.

[Thinking] In the usual way of thinking and judging, do you accept the conclusions of the "major premise" unconsciously?

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2.1.7 对“三段论”的初步探讨（一）

三段论是人们日常生活中常用的推论方式，这种推论方式涉及到以下三个内容

• 大前提
• 小前提
• 推论

关于三段论的探讨可以深入到复杂的图表方式，但是在这里我们只是进行一些一般性探讨，如果交易者对三段论的深入内容感兴趣，可专门研究逻辑学的相关知识。

为了了解三段论在日常使用的一些方式，我们这里给出一个简单的例子。

• 大前提：牛是食草动物。
• 小前提：水牛是牛。
• 推论：水牛是食草动物。

人们在日常生活中，经常使用类似的推论方式，对事物进行判断。交易者也会经常使用类似的方式进行思考，例如（以下是以虚拟的“利多机械”公司股票为例）：

• 市盈率低的股票是风险小的股票。
• 利多机械是市盈率低的股票。
• 利多机械是风险小的股票。

这种推论看起来很合理，可是在实际应用中，很多交易者觉得总是频频判断失误，其原因在何处呢？

阅读者深入研究上述两个例子，就会发现一个很有趣却也是很严肃的现象，那就是“大前提”做为命题表明了某种情况，但是这种情况是否符合实际，人们一般不再去深入思考。

这就是前面关于命题讨论中提及的：命题只负责这句话本身是否符合某种规则，至于这个命题是否符合实际不做要求。

【思考】在平常的思考和判断方式中，自己是否不自觉的就接受了“大前提”给出的结论呢？

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2.1.6 Some ambiguities in the daily use of "is" and "is not"

In the four daily judgments (propositions) (a-type, i-type, e-type, o-type), the words "is" and "is not" are used for affirmation and negation.If you think deeply about these two sets of words, you will find that these two sets of words are widely used in daily life and can easily cause ambiguity.

The "is" is a daily use vocabulary if it is indicated by a mathematical symbol that the "=" symbol should be used.If the word "is" is used in accordance with such a rule, the word "is" is basically useless except for mathematical expressions and some abstract forms of logical expressions. (This is because in the material or real world, no two things are exactly the same.) In the case of many daily constants, the concept of "is" should strictly be "belonging".

E.g.

NASDAQ stocks are publicly traded stocks in the United States.

This sentence should be strictly stated as:

NASDAQ stocks belong publicly traded stocks in the United States.

When using the term "is" to connect two different concepts, readers should always remember that no two things are exactly the same.

There is another situation, that is, even if the same concept cannot be linked with "=" at different points in history over time.

Please review the map of the Dow Jones Industrial Index mentioned in the series "1.1.5.2 Changes in sample stocks and stock index distortion":

As for the word "is not", if you go deeper, the meaning behind it in daily use is mostly a concept of "not belonging". The word "is not" is not as ambiguous as "is", because when the concept of "not belonging" is established, "is not" is also established. It’s just that everyone doesn’t delve into their true intentions in everyday language.

E.g:

Some blue chips are not the DJIA index stocks.

The meaning can also be "some blue chips do not belong to the DJIA index stocks."

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2.1.6 “是”与“不是”引起的歧义

在四种日常判断（命题）表述中，关于肯定和否定分别使用了“是”和“不是”这两个词。如果对这两个词进一步深入思考，会发现这两个词在日常生活中使用的比较宽泛，很容易引起歧义。

“是”这个日常使用的词汇如果用数学符号来表示应该用“=”符号。如果按照这样的规则去使用“是”这个词汇，那么除了在数学表达和一些抽象形式的逻辑表达语句之外，“是”这个词汇，基本上无用武之地（这是因为，在物质或现实世界中，没有两样事物是完全一样的）。在很多日常数情况下，“是”这一概念严格来讲应该为“属于”这个概念。

比如：
创业板股票是在深圳证券交易所公开交易的股票。
这句话严格来说应该表述为“创业板股票属于在深圳证券交易所公开交易的股票”。

当用“是”这一词汇，连接两个不同概念时，请阅读者时刻谨记，没有任何两个事物是完全一样的。

还有一种情况，那就是随着时间的推移即使同一个概念在历史的不同时间点也不能用“=”将二者联系起来。请交易者回顾本系列“1.1.5.2 股票指数样本股的变化与失真”文章提到的道琼斯工业指数那张图：

关于“不是”这一概念，同样去深究的话，日常使用中其背后的含义大多也是“不属于”这样一个概念。“不是”一词不像“是”那样容易歧义，因为当不属于概念成立的时候，不是同样也就成立了。只是大家在日常语言中不深究自己真正的表达意图罢了。

例如：
有些蓝筹股不是沪深300指数指标股。
实际其真实的意思是“有些蓝筹股不属于沪深300指数指标股”。

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2.1.5 Comparison of four judgments (propositions)

In the above picture, the two forms of universal and particular of the concept of NASDAQ stock are used, and then four sentences are formed for their affirmation and negation. Give each sentence a picture for understanding.

Among these four propositions, some propositions can be derived from each other to derive another proposition. See the table below for details.

Proposition type	Other proposition types that can be derived	Example
A	E	NASDAQ stocks are publicly traded stocks in the United States. Some publicly traded stocks in the United States are NASDAQ stocks.
I	I	Some NASDAQ stocks are index stocks of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Some index stocks of the Nasdaq 100 Index are NASDAQ stocks. （Although this sentence does not meet the usual language habits, it is still established.）
E	E	NASDAQ stocks are not publicly traded stocks in the NYSE. Publicly traded stocks in the NYSE are not NASDAQ stocks.

It should be noted that O propositions cannot derive O propositions. For example, the following two sets of sentences are compared.

The first set of sentences is as follows:

• Some NASDAQ100 index stocks are not blue chips. (Original O proposition)
• Some blue chips are not NASDAQ100 index stocks. (The derived O proposition is established)

The second set of sentences:

• Some NASDAQ stocks are not index stocks of the NASDAQ100 index. (Original O proposition)
• Some NASDAQ100 index stocks are not NASDAQ stocks. (The derived O proposition cannot be established)

It can be seen from the second set of sentences that the O proposition cannot derive the O proposition.

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